MidSouth Week in Review:
March 20, 2020

For the week, the S&P declined -14.2% and has failed to have two consecutive up days in six weeks.  The dollar surged to its highest level since 2017 as monies fled weakening currencies.  The British Pound hit its lowest level against the dollar in 35 years.  IHS Markit, an economic forecasting firm, expects the unemployment rate to rise to 6% by mid-2021 vs. 3.5% in February.  New claims for jobless benefits last weeks jumped to 281k from 211k a week earlier.  Crude declined 25% on Wednesday to an 18-year low before recording a record one-day, 24% gain to $25.91yesterday.  Mortgage rates surged to 3.65% from 3.35% vs. 4.28% last year.  Today the IRS postponed the April 15 tax filing deadline to July 15 because of the virus pandemic.  Blue Apron (APRN), the meal kit delivery company, surged from $2.10 last Friday to $28.84 yesterday, before closing at $9.84 today.  APRN hit around $150 after its mid-2017 IPO.

BuzzBits

Unprofitable Companies – often have a lot of sizzle but are usually underperformers.  Over the past five years, profitable companies had a median annualized return of 16.0% vs. 4.2% for the unprofitable firms.  This amounts to an annualized difference of 11.8% - Derek Horstmeyer, George Mason University ….. Nearly 40% of the small cap companies in the Russell 2000 Index are losing money - Westwood Insight

Coronavirus Death Rates – By age:  0.0% for under 10, 1 in 500 for age groups 10-19, 20-29, 30-39, 1 in 25 for those between 40 and 49, 1.3% for 50-59, 3.6% for 60-69, 8% for 70-79 and 14.8% for those 80+.  By underlying conditions:  Cardiovascular disease 10.5%, diabetes 7.3%, respiratory disease 6.3%, hypertension 6.0%, cancer 5.6% - Chinese Center for Disease Control ….. Of those impacted, 80% will be early-stage, 15% mid-stage and 5% critical-stage.  Early-stage symptoms are like the common cold and mid-stage symptoms are like the flu.  These should stay home and rest for 2 weeks.  5% will be critical and highly-weighted toward the elderly – Goldman Sachs ….. 40 year-olds are now the most vulnerable to getting the virus.  Why?  Their kids are coming back from spring break

Relax – The odds of you getting this virus are lower than two Baptists recognizing each other in a liquor store – Chuck Roast

Term Insurance – Most parents don’t have insurance or a sufficient death benefit.  A 30-year old could buy a $1 million, 25-year policy for a fixed price of $45 per month and $40 for a female – Term4Sale.com

The Flu Season – The 2018-2019 season in the U.S. caused 35.5 million to get sick, 16.5 million to see a healthcare provider, 490,600 hospitalizations and 34,200 deaths – Center for Disease Control

Student Debt – Nearly 30% of borrowers are in delinquency or default.  Five years out of school, just half of people with student debt have paid even $1 toward their principal or the amount they originally borrowed – U.S. Dept. of Education ….. The federal government is the biggest holder of student debt, with $1.2 trillion in direct loans to more than 35 million borrowers – New York Times ….. Today Trump announced that student loan borrowers can suspend payments for 60 days without interest.

Wholesale Gasoline Prices – have declined from a January high of $1.80 a gallon to 65 cents this week.  GasBuddy.com says that the nation’s average price at the pump could soon hit $1.99, with $1.49 on the horizon and some stations potentially pricing a gallon of regular as low as 99 cents – Fox News

Movie Theaters – Ticket sales totaled $50.3 million this past weekend, a 44% drop from the previous weekend, and the worst weekend at the box office in at least two decades – The Hustle

1 Percent - of the U.S. population are responsible for 22% of total health care spending, representing $800 billion or $242,000 per person per year – Brookings

Youth Sports – More than 45 million kids are engaged in youth sports, but an estimated 70% will drop out.  A Centers for Disease Control study found that physically active youths have better weight control, academic achievement and mental health and a lower likelihood of diabetes.  The problem is that more than half of youth coaches are volunteers and do not have relevant training.  A study of 10,000 competitive swimmers reported that a lack of fun, negative coach behaviors and an overemphasis on winning were among the top reasons kids drop out of sports – New York Times

Baltimore – has 58 murders per 100,000 residents vs. 36 for El Salvador, 41 for Honduras and 3.3 for New York City.  They have had five police chiefs in four years and have 500 fewer officers than a decade ago and arrests have dropped 48% over the past five years.  Their DA has lost 49% of her homicide cases vs. the normal 70% win rate.  Less than 15% of the city’s students are proficient in math or English – New York Times

The Beginning

On Wednesday, I woke up with a cough and the chills.  The first thing I did was Google my symptoms.  I brushed it off, thinking it was all in my head.  But after taking my temperature a few times throughout the morning, a fever started to show:  99.9 degrees.  The coughing continued and I was soon at 100.2. 

Almost a dozen calls with five health care providers over five hours.  Two hours of home music.  Two hours in a hospital.  Four days of anxiously checking an online portal for results.  And lots of confusion.  That’s the winding path through bureaucracy that took me from placing my first phone call last Wednesday to getting my positive coronavirus test results on Monday night.  Five days in limbo.

I’m 33 years old and healthy without any existing respiratory conditions, so the illness itself is perfectly manageable.  It feels like a medium-grade flu, with some extra coughing and chest pain. – Tim Herrera

Free coronavirus screening - https://heydoctor.goodrx.com/services/coronavirus?utm_campaign=covid19_service_wave4_march2020&utm_medium=email&utm_source=braze&utm_term=learn_more&utm_content=acq

buzz@msifund.com

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