MidSouth Week in Review:
December 27, 2019

The S & P was up 0.6% for the holiday shortened week and is in line for its best year return since 1997.  The Nasdaq crossed the 9,000 barrier and closed up 0.8% for the week.  The small cap Russell 2000 hit its highest level since Oct. 2018.  Since 1900, the stock market has averaged a 1.6% advance over these last five trading days of the year through the first two trading days of the new year.  3Q corporate profits suffered their third straight quarterly contraction.  Analysts expect another decline in the 4Q before profits start to accelerate again in 2020.  Oil hit a 3-month high and gold made a 2-month high in rising through the $1,500 level. 

BuzzBits

2020 – Going back to 1944, 17 of the last 19 presidential election years have had positive stock market returns.  2000 and 2008 were the only down years – BTN Research

Fifty years Ago – In 1969, Equitable Securities in Nashville was the second wealthiest investment firm in the nation, next to Merrill Lynch.  The firm was the largest stockholder of American Express after acquiring the position in the mid 1940’s.  They also held a large position in Holiday Inn, who they brought public in 1957 – Buzz

Corporate Taxes – accounted for 3.5% of all federal tax revenue in 2019 vs. 9% in 2010 vs. 22% in 1960 – THE WEEK ….. About 400 of America’s largest corporations paid an average federal tax rate of 11.3 percent on their profits last year, roughly half the rate established under the 2017 tax law, and 91 Fortune 500 companies paid no federal tax at all – The Washington Post

People With Kids – are less happy and more prone to depression than childless peers, partly because they get less sleep and experience more stress.  But, a study of 55,000 Europeans found that parents were more likely to be happier when they get older provided the kids have flown the coup – THE WEEK ….. 40% of 18 to 34 year-olds are living with parents, a 29% gain since 2013 – Jones Trading

State Pay – Ed Orgeron, head coach of the No. 1 ranked NCAA football team, LSU, makes $4.0 million annually vs. a mere $130,000 a year for the Louisiana governor – Council of State Governors

Finland – is the world’s happiest country.  The country collects 44% of its GDP in taxes vs. 26% for the U.S.  Finland mandates 15 paid holidays vs. 7.6 in the U.S. and has free health care, which it pays 9% of its GDP vs. the U.S., which spends 18%.  Infant mortality per 1000 births is 1.7 vs. 5.8 deaths per 1000 births in the U.S. – INC. ….. This month, 34-year-old Sanna Marin became the first female prime minister of Finland.

Millennials – with college degrees have about 6% less wealth than expected based on typical wealth held at the same age by older generations.  Millennials who lacked degrees had 44% less wealth than the older generations.  Instead of saving to buy a home, millennials with college degrees are paying back their student loans, which could explain why the group is trailing older generations in wealth accumulation.

Obesity – This year, every state has an obesity rate higher than 35% (BMI of 30+), except Colorado and Hawaii.  Ten states were over 45% and Mississippi’s rate nearly hit 50%.  Using current trends, 50% of adults will be obese by 2030 and 25% will be considered severely obese (BMI of 40+) – New England Journal of Medicine

Household Net Worth – is $113.8 trillion or $927,000 per household – Federal Reserve

Paris Real Estate – 70% of residents are renters.  Property prices are about $1,000 per square foot on average.  Bundesbank recently said that there is a real estate bubble and that Munich, Frankfurt, Amsterdam and Paris are overvalued by 15% to 30% - New York Times

College Enrollment – dropped 250,000 this fall and is down 11% since 2012 because of declining unemployment, the rising cost of college and a falling national birth rate – NPR.ORG

The Most Expensive Hotel Cities – Nashville $223, Boston $221, San Jose $214, San Francisco $209.  The cheapest:  Baltimore $97, Fresno $85, San Antonio $84, Las Vegas $69 – Cheaphotels.org

Cheap Labor – Mexico will be raising their minimum wage by 20%, starting Jan. 1, to 123.22 pesos per day or $6.50, which is less than $1.00 per hour.  Northern territories will be raising their wages 5% to $9.75 a day – Los Angeles Times

Murder City – Through Tuesday, Baltimore has had 338 homicides for the year or one for every 1,754 residents vs. one for every 26,141 residents in NYC – Associated Press

The Election

While there’s still lots of time for things to change between now and Nov…If the economy holds up and if the Dems can’t unite around a candidate…As it stands now, President Trump is likely to win reelection.  Historically, a good economy favors the incumbent.  Trump’s approval rating has been low throughout his first term in office, but he’ll be able to run on a growing economy.  A formidable Democratic opponent could change the equation:  A candidate who can consolidate support from the moderate and progressive wings of the party.  Potentially Joe Biden, for example, but that may be a tall task in this Democratic field – The Kiplinger Letter ….. I was in Boston over the Christmas holidays visiting the grands and my thoughtful daughter, Annsley, gave me these lovely Elizabeth Warren socks to keep me warm - Buzz