MidSouth Week in Review:
November 22, 2019

After six consecutive up weeks, the S & P closed down 0.4% for the week.  Shares of retailers were among the biggest decliners for the week as many reported disappointing same-store-sales numbers.  The group included:  Kohl’s, Home Depot, Macy’s, Nordstrom, Gap and J.C. Penny.  Housing stocks rose on the news that permits hit a 12-year high, pointing to strength in the housing market amid lower mortgage rates.  Pot stocks rallied Thursday following a historic House vote in favor of a bill that would lift the ban on weed.  A recent Bank of America survey found more than a third of the 230 fund managers polled said they expect value stocks to post better returns over the next 12 months than growth.  The U.S. budget gap grew 34% in the first month of the FY, pushing the 12-month deficit past $1 trillion for the first time since February 2013.  Bitcoin hit a 6-month low of $6,955 and is down 26% from its $9,412 October 29 high.

BuzzBits

AAII Investor Survey – found only 20.3% were bullish vs. the 38.0% norm and 44% were bearish vs. the 30.5% norm.  Stockmarket sentiment indicators are contrarian.  Unusually low optimism is typically followed by above-average returns and unusually high optimism is typically followed by below-average returns.

Beware – of people who say they’re going to invest your money as if it were their own – pretty soon it is – Robert Orben

The S & P 500 – The current bull market, which started March 9, 2009, has enjoyed a whopping 476% gain.  The record-long bull run marks the best-performing one since WWII – The Leuthold Group

Real Estate Agents - averaged earning about $48,690 in 2018.  The 2,773 agents of NYC firm Douglas Ellison closed 5,979 transactions last year, averaging two deals per agent, leaving many agents with lots of free time.  Several agents were asked in lieu of a commission if they would be willing to work for $120 per hour assisting a buyer or seller in a transaction.  Many said yes.  Home Buying Agent in Ann Arbor has their agents work with this arrangement.  One assisted the writer of the story and earned $7,000 vs. a commission and was very happy with the arrangement – Justin Wolfers, University of Michigan

Outperformance – Only three of 20 top actively managed U.S. mutual funds have outperformed the market this year:  Fidelity Growth Fund (FDGRX – 25.4%), Vanguard Dividend Growth (VDIGX – 24.5%), T. Rowe Price Mid-Cap Growth (RPMGX – 23.6%) – Barron’s

The 1% Club – required earnings of $515,371 in 2017.  To make the top 0.1% club required annual earnings of $2.4 million.  The top 1% earned 21% of the country’s income and paid more to the Treasury than the bottom 90% combined – IRS ….. 41% of American households make less than $50,000 per year.  Only 8% make at least $200,000 – Census Bureau

Ouch! – ArtGo Holdings, a marble-mining stock, declined 98% Thursday on the announcement that their stock was not going to be listed on the MSCI (China Index).  Shares in the unprofitable Hong-Kong listed shares were selling at 46x book value and 85x revenue, before declining from $14.80 a share to 28 cents.

Apple Heart App – The device on the Apple watch can monitor heart pulse patterns and detect abnormalities which could indicate a condition called Afib.  The irregular heartbeats characteristic of Afib could lead to stroke, blood clots and heart failure.  Matched with electrocardiographs (EKG), the gold standard, is accurate 84% of the time – TIME 

Faith In Numbers – An American Family survey indicates that 35% don’t identify with any religion vs. 16% in 2007.  65% identify as Christians vs. 78% in 2007.  The rise of NONE among younger people aged 18 to 29 is 44%.  A Pew poll survey found that 60% question a lot of religious teachings and 49% don’t like the position churches have taken on political/social issues.

Old and Owing – In 2018, 46% of homeowners ages 65-79 had mortgage debt vs. 24% 30 years ago – Harvard University study

Slaves – White Europeans sold themselves into servitude, usually for four to seven years in exchange for transportation to the New World and the chance to eventually own land.  Only 388,000 out of 12.4 million Africans forcibly taken to the New World were sent to North America, yet by 1860, there were 4.4 million blacks living in the U.S.  The genetic makeup of the average black in the U.S. is an estimated 16.7% European – THE WEEK

Football – is the most popular high-school sport among boys yet its popularity is declining.  Ohio has produced the fourth-highest total of NFL players but the participation has dropped 27%.  Eight of their high schools were unable to fill squads to play even eight-man football last year – New York Times

Never Never – After many, many people were pleading with Hillary Clinton to enter the Democratic primary race, she said “I, as I say, never, never, never say never.” ….. Democratic presidential nomination odds:  Warren 24%, Biden 22%, Buttigieg 22%, Sanders 16%, Bloomberg 11%, Clinton 8% - PredictIt

Movie Reviews

Ford V Ferrari  https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/ford_v_ferrari was a really enjoyable movie about Ford competing in 1966 with Ferrari to win the 24-hour Le Mans in France in 1966.  Both Matt Damon and Christian Bale did an excellent job of acting in the 152 minute, PG-13 film.  Ticket buyers gave the movie an A+ grade in Cinema Score exit polls.  On Monday, I was having lunch with a friend from Columbus, OH and he asked me if I had seen Harriet, https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/harriet about Harriet Tubman who helped liberate hundreds of slaves through the underground railroad.  I said I saw it last week for historic purposes and really loved the movie.  He said he went to the movie for the same reason and gave it a 10.  Rotten Tomatoes viewers gave it a 97% rating.  The movie will most likely be an Academy Award nominee.  A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood is being released today, featuring Tom Hanks as Mister Rogers, that I am sure will be a must see movie.  https://parade.com/952259/parade/mister-rogers-trivia/.  - Buzz

buzz@msifund.com

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